Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.946723 4.078272 5.715057 8.349761 1.267788e+01 1.989344e+01 3.378451e+01
2025-03-16 1.902434 3.040072 5.039675 9.136432 1.831930e+01 4.120944e+01 1.190656e+02
2025-03-23 1.358547 2.440628 4.685536 10.438943 2.825085e+01 1.007004e+02 7.091148e+02
2025-03-30 0.998596 1.976041 4.314116 11.693448 4.371461e+01 2.864443e+02 1.299921e+04
2025-04-06 0.705239 1.493955 3.586744 11.356338 5.661268e+01 7.345898e+02 1.032690e+07
2025-04-13 0.503734 1.123080 2.902987 10.442192 6.760932e+01 1.939652e+03 NaN
2025-04-20 0.400484 0.947232 2.674205 11.298973 1.057718e+02 1.518041e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 0.337485 0.848870 2.636062 13.406728 2.052001e+02 4.728044e+06 NaN
2025-05-04 0.290567 0.774404 2.639320 16.297273 4.618931e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.244770 0.681387 2.496501 18.101941 9.525894e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.199190 0.568727 2.175334 17.432431 1.443259e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.161617 0.469131 1.846135 15.836109 1.854675e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.140091 0.421276 1.763694 17.646255 5.294160e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.121497 0.376574 1.664246 19.181872 1.826207e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.107882 0.345515 1.621375 22.039596 1.626404e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.095876 0.315946 1.563794 24.808804 1.068415e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.082225 0.274249 1.388814 23.601163 4.369297e+09 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.070065 0.234981 1.202508 21.100813 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.063155 0.216284 1.152324 22.941375 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.058696 0.206827 1.165274 27.886465 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.055038 0.199663 1.192340 34.981910 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.050608 0.187172 1.162626 39.450738 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.045195 0.168112 1.056594 37.494685 NaN NaN NaN